Real Estate and Covid–19 Part 3

How the Current Selling Season Compares to Last Year’s Selling Season

By Erin Wright and Christina Waterhouse

We have been closely watching our local real estate market since the start of the pandemic. There is a lot of conflicting information about how the market is currently doing. Transactions are happening, but is it business as usual?

For this week’s blog topic, we are further looking into how the real estate market is currently performing and how it compares to last year. The quick answer is that we are still in a seller’s market, seeing homes go pending quickly for close to or over asking price. The more accurate picture is a bit more complicated. Last year Clark County saw a robust selling season, with the months of March through November having over 1,400 active listings per month up to over 1,800 active listings per month.[1] Additionally, the months of March through August in 2019 had over 800 pending listings per month.[2] Our current market is performing at about 80% of last years market. Last month we had 1,279 active listings and 608 pending listings. [3]

This is important to note because although we are seeing a seller’s market with quick activity, similar to last year, we are not seeing a normal amount of inventory or buyers. Currently we are seeing multiple offers and houses in certain price points selling for over asking. However, with fewer active buyers and fewer active sellers, there are some variables in our market to consider for how it will proceed moving forward. This current ratio of supply and demand may continue, more buyers may enter the market without more listings to buy, or more sellers may enter the market without more buyers to buy. If the ratios stay the same, we will continue to experience a relatively quick market favoring sellers. If more buyers enter the market without increasing the supply, we will experience an even more favorable seller’s market, encouraging multiple offers and driving prices up. If more sellers enter the market without an increase in buyers, we will begin to see a softening and a more neutral market where buyers and sellers both share equal bargaining power. Though no one knows for sure what will happen, there seems to be a consensus among real estate economists that home sales will be down 10-15% this year compared to last year.[4] Additionally, homes may experience a slight drop in value during the 3^rd and 4^th quarter of this year, but still appreciate marginally year over year by about 2.5%.[5]  For more information on the specific economics of the housing market this year, please feel free to watch the video below from economist Matthew Gardner.

As always, we welcome any questions you may have and are happy to offer advice.

[1] History of Monthly Active Listings According to Trendgraphix

[2] Last Months Active and Pending Listings According to Trendgraphix

[3] Last Months Active and Pending Listings According to Trendgraphix

[4] Market Forecast According to Matthew Gardner

[5] Market Forecast According to Matthew Gardner