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Real Estate and Covid–19 Part 3
How the Current Selling Season Compares to Last Year’s Selling Season
By Erin Wright and Christina Waterhouse
We have been closely watching our local real estate market since the start of the pandemic. There is a lot of conflicting information about how the market is currently doing. Transactions are happening, but is it business as usual?
For this week’s blog topic, we are further looking into how the real estate market is currently performing and how it compares to last year. The quick answer is that we are still in a seller’s market, seeing homes go pending quickly for close to or over asking price. The more accurate picture is a bit more complicated. Last year Clark County saw a robust selling season, with the months of March through November having over 1,400 active listings per month up to over 1,800 active listings per month.[1] Additionally, the months of March through August in 2019 had over 800 pending listings per month.[2] Our current market is performing at about 80% of last years market. Last month we had 1,279 active listings and 608 pending listings. [3]
This is important to note because although we are seeing a seller’s market with quick activity, similar to last year, we are not seeing a normal amount of inventory or buyers. Currently we are seeing multiple offers and houses in certain price points selling for over asking. However, with fewer active buyers and fewer active sellers, there are some variables in our market to consider for how it will proceed moving forward. This current ratio of supply and demand may continue, more buyers may enter the market without more listings to buy, or more sellers may enter the market without more buyers to buy. If the ratios stay the same, we will continue to experience a relatively quick market favoring sellers. If more buyers enter the market without increasing the supply, we will experience an even more favorable seller’s market, encouraging multiple offers and driving prices up. If more sellers enter the market without an increase in buyers, we will begin to see a softening and a more neutral market where buyers and sellers both share equal bargaining power. Though no one knows for sure what will happen, there seems to be a consensus among real estate economists that home sales will be down 10-15% this year compared to last year.[4] Additionally, homes may experience a slight drop in value during the 3rd and 4th quarter of this year, but still appreciate marginally year over year by about 2.5%.[5] For more information on the specific economics of the housing market this year, please feel free to watch the video below from economist Matthew Gardner.
As always, we welcome any questions you may have and are happy to offer advice.
[1] History of Monthly Active Listings According to Trendgraphix
[2] Last Months Active and Pending Listings According to Trendgraphix
[3] Last Months Active and Pending Listings According to Trendgraphix
[4] Market Forecast According to Matthew Gardner
[5] Market Forecast According to Matthew Gardner
Real Estate and Covid-19 Part 1
Understanding the Current Real Estate Market in Clark County
Our team has received a lot of inquiries regarding the real estate market during Covid-19. There are valid concerns and questions surrounding how this has impacted the market so far and what will happen in the future. We decided to share with you all the various statistics that we review to gauge the health of the real estate market and help you understand what they mean. This is part 1 of a series of real estate economic blog posts we will be publishing weekly.
What our local Market is currently doing and why
Clark County Washington is experiencing a Seller’s Market. We are seeing new listings that are priced appropriately selling quickly with multiple offers. This may seem counter intuitive, given that unemployment is up and so many businesses are closed. These things are true. Real estate is a perfect example of supply and demand. The pandemic has decreased demand, and we are seeing fewer buyers in the market than we would typically see this time of year. Some buyers are waiting to see what happens with their jobs, the economy, or just do not feel safe viewing properties. However, the pandemic has decreased the supply further. According to RMLS the week prior to the state-wide lock down, there were 272 new listings on the market. This past week there were only 173 new listings on the market, a decrease of 36%. To further tighten the inventory, during the past week, 183 listings went pending, which is 10 more listings than came on the market.
This data provides a good picture of what is going on in terms of numbers, but what does it mean to the buyers and sellers in the market today? We received multiple offers on our last 3 new listings during this pandemic. We have also had multiple buyers in bidding wars over the last couple weeks. For Sellers, this is showing that there is strong interest in the market right now due to the incredibly low inventory. We strongly advise Sellers to fully prep, clean, landscape and stage houses. This, along with pricing at market value will enable sellers to capitalize on the high demand and hope for multiple offers. For Buyers, this means that if you like a house, you need to make a quick decision to write an offer and really put your best foot forward. This can be difficult if you are looking for a good deal. Our best recommendation to such buyers is to look for properties that have been on the market for 30, 60, 90+ days and try to negotiate those sellers down on price. For all buyers right now, be prepared to lose out on a few houses because you have a lot of competition. Be patient, the right house will come around.
As always, we welcome any questions you may have and are happy to offer advice.
Erin & Christina
